Subscribe to Newsletter
  • ACQUIRE

logo

  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Resources
  • Trending
  • Business Insight
  • Events
  • Magazine
  • Advertise
  • Contact
Home
  • Home
  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Resources
  • Trending
  • Business Insight
  • Events
  • Magazine
  • Advertise
  • Contact

Global coal demand forecast to rise in 2021

04 Jan, 2021



After a notable drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to increase by 2.6 per cent in 2021 before flattening out to 2025.

A global economic recovery in 2021 is forecast to drive a short-lived rebound in coal demand following the major drop in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 crisis, a report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted.

However, there is little sign that the world’s coal consumption is set to decline substantially in the coming years, with rising demand in some Asian economies offsetting declines elsewhere.

As coal is by far the single largest source of global energy-related carbon emissions, the trends outlined in the report pose a major challenge to efforts to put those emissions on a path compatible with reaching climate and sustainable energy goals, the IEA states.

The past two years have seen historic falls in global coal demand, led by unprecedented drops in the United States and Europe, outlined Coal 2020, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual market report on the sector.

A 1.8 per cent decline in coal demand in 2019 resulted mainly from weak growth in electricity demand and low natural gas prices.

The IEA’s latest estimates suggest coal demand will have plunged by a further 5 per cent in 2020 on the economic fallout from the pandemic.

Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, said the COVID-19 crisis has completely reshaped global coal markets.

“Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” Mr Sadamori said.

“The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China – the world’s largest coal consumer – in the second half of the year.”

Based on the assumption of a recovery in the world economy, the IEA report forecasts a 2.6 per cent rise in global coal demand in 2021, driven by higher electricity demand and industrial output.

China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, although the United States and Europe may also both see their first increases in coal consumption in nearly a decade.

Yet, global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met.

The IEA notes that the rebound in coal demand in 2021 is set to be short-lived, with coal use forecast to flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tonnes. This would make 2013, when global coal demand reached 8 billion tonnes, coal’s all-time peak.

But while coal’s share in both the electricity mix and the overall energy mix are in steady decline, coal use in absolute terms is not set for a rapid decline in the immediate future.

Mr Sadamori detailed that renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025, and by that time, natural gas will likely have taken over coal as the second-largest source of primary energy after oil.

“But with coal demand still expected to remain steady or to grow in key Asian economies, there is no sign that coal is going to fade away quickly,” he concluded.

The IEA’s Coal 2020 report can be found here.

Related Articles

The Future Minerals Forum 2025

Critical Minerals Japan

Comments

Leave a comment Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Breaking

  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Resources
09 Jul

Federal government funds green iron project in Kwinana

09 Jul

US battery storage market growth defies uncertainty

09 Jul

RISE Accelerator applications have now closed

09 Jul

Sanderson unveils guideline supporting community benefits

03 Jul

Governments double solar battery incentives in NSW

10 Jul

FWPA launches national recycled timber standard

10 Jul

WorldGBC urges stronger building climate policies

25 Jun

Cool project reduces car park surface temperatures

25 Jun

Ocean Reef Marina achieves top sustainability certification

18 Jun

McNab wins Queensland Sustainability Award 2025

17 Jul

ROSEN wins contract for UK decarbonisation project

17 Jul

Western Australia launches $50m battery initiative

17 Jul

Innovative UNSW research harnesses ocean currents

10 Jul

AI adoption accelerates the discovery of green ammonia

03 Jul

Pilbara aims to lead clean shipping as a green fuel bunkering hub

  • BATTERY ASSET MANAGEMENT SUMMIT

Online Magazine

    Current Cover
  • Login
  • Subscribe

Subscribe

Subscribe to Newsletter

Our Titles

  • Share on Newsletter
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy
© Sage Media Group 2025 All Rights Reserved.
×
Authorization
  • Registration
 This feature has been disabled
 This feature has been disabled until further notice, however you may still register
×
Registration
  • Autorization
Register
* All fields required