The top three wind turbine players – Vestas, SGRE and GE – are expected to increase their combined global market share from 43 per cent in 2019 to 60 per cent by 2029, new analysis from Wood Mackenzie has outlined.
Following Enercon’s financial troubles, and expected turnaround by 2023, Nordex has emerged as a robust fourth contender in global markets excluding China.
Global operational scale, onshore and offshore presence, large balance sheets, closer proximity to the largest asset owners and financial strength will prove to be advantageous for leading Western turbine OEMs and help to consolidate global market share outside of China, Wood Mackenzie states.
Wood Mackenzie Principal Analyst, Shashi Barla, said western turbine OEMs are expected to capture more than 10 per cent of combined market share in China this year – the highest in the past decade – due to the Feed in Tariff (FIT) termination.
“FIT phase-out in China has triggered a near-term surge in the market, with tier II players climbing the 2020 rankings. China’s aim to meet the 2060 carbon-neutral goal may entice new entrants into the wind industry due to a significant increase in demand,” Barla said.
“Tier II Chinese domestic players are targeting the offshore market with 10+ megawatt (MW) turbines, while the mainstream players look to 5-7MW technologies to strengthen their share.”
Vestas, currently sitting at top spot in the global rankings, will be faced with strong competition over the coming years due to SGRE’s aggressive expansion in the offshore segment.
“SGRE will secure the global number one ranking by 2025 and retain that position through the end of the decade,” added Barla.
The top eight global wind turbines OEMs will more than double their cumulative instalments this decade. According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, Vestas and SGRE will surpass the 200 gigawatt (GW) mark by 2029, while GE will be 12GW shy of that number. Additionally, Goldwind will emerge as the only Chinese OEM to breach the 100GW mark by 2029.
SGRE reinforced its market leadership in 2020 with more than 15GW of operational projects and over 17GW of projects under backlog.
Levelised cost of energy (LCOE) targets forced many turbine OEMs to chase more than 15MW turbines.
Vestas/MHI Vestas is expected to accelerate much-needed investments in next-generation 15+MW turbines. These technologies will elevate Vestas’ offshore market share post-2025 and lower LCOE for offshore asset owners.
GE continues to await the series production of Haliade X in 2021 for delivery to customers starting in 2022. GE will switch to a larger rotor for deliveries, which will pit them against their peers and result in a larger market share for the company towards the end of the decade.
In China, SEwind and MingYang are expected to consolidate the Chinese offshore market with 60 per cent of combined market share over the next decade, despite increasing competition from other OEMs.