Offshore wind turbines are being pitched as a major piece of Victoria’s energy future, but a Swinburne University expert is warning that installing turbines alone will not fix the state’s power problems.
As Victoria pushes ahead with plans to build offshore wind capacity, Professor Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian says the bigger challenge is not generation, but integration.
He argues the real test lies in how new offshore wind capacity connects to and interacts with an electricity grid that is already undergoing sweeping change.
“From a power-system perspective, the critical issue is how offshore wind is integrated into the grid,” Professor Seyedmahmoudian said.
He points out that large offshore projects will demand coordinated transmission planning, advanced power-electronic controls, grid-forming battery storage and precise modelling of system strength, stability and fault behaviour.
Those requirements will only grow more pressing as electricity demand climbs from data centres, transport electrification and other heavy industrial users, adding further strain to the national grid.
The comments come as Victoria works through the early stages of what would be Australia’s first offshore wind industry.
The state has launched the nation’s first offshore wind auction, opening a request for proposals for an initial 2GW of capacity off the Gippsland coast, enough power for around 1.5 million homes.
That tender is due to close in August 2027, with contracts to be awarded in 2028.
The 2GW round is the first step toward Victoria’s longer-term goal of 9GW of offshore wind by 2040, with an interim target of 4GW by 2035.
Victoria is home to Australia’s first declared offshore wind zone off the Gippsland coast, along with a second zone off the state’s south west near Warrnambool.
Nine active project licences currently sit within the declared Gippsland zone, representing a combined proposed capacity of more than 20GW, though only a fraction of that is expected to be supported through the initial auction.
The push comes as pressure builds on the existing grid. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities has flagged emerging reliability gaps in Victoria as early as 2030-31, as ageing coal-fired generation nears the end of its working life.
Renewables already make up roughly 45 per cent of Victoria’s electricity generation, but the state is racing to replace retiring coal plants with new capacity.
Separate modelling has also pointed to broader grid benefits from offshore wind.
Research commissioned by the developer behind the Star of the South project found that building offshore wind in Gippsland could save the national grid billions of dollars by cutting the need for new high-voltage transmission lines.
Star of the South remains Australia’s most advanced offshore wind proposal, and if built would generate 2.2GW, roughly equivalent to the output of Victoria’s largest coal plant, Loy Yang A.
Professor Seyedmahmoudian said cost pressures and community concerns also need to be handled openly, with Australia able to draw lessons from offshore wind industries already established overseas.
He said building local supply chains, port infrastructure and a skilled workforce will be essential to sustaining the industry over decades, and that universities, technology firms, network operators and governments each have a role to play in developing that capacity.
He said success will hinge on coordinated planning across generation, transmission, storage, digital control systems, workforce development and community engagement, rather than on generation targets in isolation.
“Offshore wind is therefore not a silver bullet, but it can be a valuable part of a diversified and resilient energy system,” he said.
