Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, has delivered a major blow to the nuclear power industry’s hopes of establishing a foothold in the country.

According to the CSIRO’s newly released 2023-24 GenCost report, large-scale nuclear power would be around twice as expensive as wind and solar photovoltaics for new electricity generation projects in Australia.

The report, which includes cost estimates for nuclear power for the first time based on data from South Korea adjusted for Australian conditions, found that pursuing nuclear would require substantially higher costs compared to accelerating the deployment of proven and increasingly affordable renewable energy technologies like wind and solar.

The CSIRO report stated that for nuclear to be cost-competitive in Australia, the country would need to commit to a continuous nuclear building program over decades, requiring an initial investment in a higher-cost first reactor.

The findings cast serious doubts on the economic viability of nuclear power in Australia — a country that has never had a nuclear power plant and remains deeply divided over whether to introduce the controversial technology.

Even when accounting for integration costs like storage and transmission, wind and solar remain the lowest-cost options for new electricity generation capacity in Australia according to the GenCost analysis.

Small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), which have been touted by some as a more affordable nuclear alternative, were found to be even more expensive than traditional large-scale plants. Capital cost estimates for SMRs increased significantly following the cancellation of a major US project due to ballooning costs.

Another key factor working against nuclear power in Australia is the extremely long development timelines of at least 15 years for new plants to become operational.

This means nuclear cannot make a significant contribution to Australia’s legislated emissions reduction targets for 2050 under the current climate policy timeframes.

In contrast, large-scale wind and solar farms can typically be built in two to four years, allowing renewables to be rapidly deployed to replace Australia’s aging coal-fired power fleet over the coming decades at the lowest possible cost.

The CSIRO’s comprehensive analysis reinforces the economic case for Australia to continue its transition towards a renewable energy-dominated electricity grid, leaving nuclear power as an extremely expensive diversion.

With renewables costs continuing to fall, the nuclear power debate in Australia may well be over before a single plant gets built.