The global energy system is undergoing its most significant transition in history, heralding a new energy era centred on clean electricity and widespread electrification.
Rystad Energy has released its flagship annual report, Global Energy Scenarios (GES) 2025, which offers detailed pathways to 2100 and a new nationally determined contribution (NDC) scenario out to 2035.
This pivotal report outlines how clean energy sources have surged from 9 per cent of primary energy in 2015 to over 14 per cent in 2025, marking an unprecedented pace of transformation in the energy landscape.
According to Rystad Energy, renewable energy technologies — particularly wind and solar — are expanding faster than any previous energy technology.
Total additions of wind and solar capacity between 2024 and 2025 are projected to exceed 700 gigawatts (GW), with solar power expected to lead this expansion.
Solar capacity is forecast to leap from 1,868 GW in 2024 to 2,412 GW in 2025 alone, driven by record manufacturing output, lower costs, and accelerated deployment in major markets including China, India, and the United States.
This rapid growth in renewables supports a 1.9-degree Celsius trajectory of global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels by around 2040 — meaning that the world is on track to keep warming below 2 degrees, yet not sufficiently below 1.6 degrees as targeted by the Paris Agreement.
The report highlights the emergence of a hybrid energy ecosystem where clean electricity forms the backbone of power generation and electrification expands across transport, buildings, and industry.
Rystad Energy identifies three critical steps needed to realise this energy transition and mitigate climate change effectively:
- Clean up and grow the power sector: Decarbonising electricity generation is paramount, with emissions reductions in the power sector accounting for at least 90 per cent of the necessary cuts to limit warming beyond 1.9 degrees Celsius. This involves rapidly scaling renewable capacity to displace fossil fuels.
- Electrify almost everything: Electrification, especially the adoption of electric vehicles, alongside improving energy efficiency across buildings, industry, and transportation, plays a crucial role in achieving pathways aligned with warming limits near or below 1.6 degrees Celsius.
- Address residual emissions: Technologies like carbon capture and storage or substituting fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives will contribute somewhat, though their impact is limited and mostly relevant beyond mid-century because of higher costs and slower deployment.
The report draws on data applying to 217 countries, covering more than 60 economic subsectors, and integrating over 70 energy carriers, providing a comprehensive global energy outlook.
It underscores that the energy transition focuses not just on replacing energy sources but on improving overall energy efficiency — delivering more useful energy services with lower primary energy input losses.
As clean electricity expands and electrification becomes widespread, the global energy sector is positioned at a pivotal juncture with profound implications for climate action and energy security.
The rapid scale-up of renewables, particularly solar and wind, supported by policy signals and investment, is driving this transformation and bringing the ambitious temperature targets within reach.