Global demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) could rise twentyfold by 2050, driving a tenfold increase in supply-chain greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new University of Melbourne-led study that points to reduced demand as a major way to limit the climate impact.
Published in One Earth, Cell Press’ flagship sustainability journal, the research was led by Associate Professor Wen Li from the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology.
It found that cleaner production methods, including switching battery chemistries, greening factories and recovering materials from used batteries, are essential but insufficient to offset the projected rise in emissions.
Electric vehicle batteries are crucial to clean energy, yet their production carries a significant emissions burden.
Most previous research on decarbonising LIBs has concentrated on the supply side, covering the sourcing and refining of raw materials, manufacturing and end-of-life recycling.
The modelling covered battery material production, component production, battery manufacturing and end-of-life treatment from 2024 to 2050.
Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of Sheffield contributed to the work, which is among the first detailed global assessments to examine supply-side and demand-side factors together.
It was the first to compare several demand-side strategies directly against ambitious supply-side decarbonisation efforts introduced over time.
The demand-side measures included reducing battery sizes, extending battery lifetimes and promoting shared mobility.
Through battery technology advancement and business model innovation, the team modelled how many batteries would be needed, their size, their longevity and how often they would need replacing.
Improving all four factors could significantly cut the number of new batteries required worldwide for transport and energy storage.
Associate Professor Li said cleaner production helped, but cutting demand offered another very large opportunity to reduce emissions.
Supply-side decarbonisation remains essential, he said, with cleaner electricity especially important and recycling becoming increasingly valuable.
Without the additional measures tested, the global battery supply chain could generate about 19 to 23 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through to 2050.
Combining ambitious supply-side and demand-side strategies would cut that figure to about 9 to 12 billion tonnes, roughly half.
Within that reduction, supply-side measures account for about 3.5 to 4.7 billion tonnes of mitigation, while demand-side strategies account for about 6 to 7 billion tonnes.
Associate Professor Li put the savings in perspective.
“These are emissions reductions on the scale of the annual emissions of a major global economy such as the EU,” said Associate Professor Li.
Lead and first author Dr Haiwei Zhou, also from the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, said the team hoped to improve the model’s regional resolution, because mining, refining, electricity and environmental pressures vary greatly between locations.
The researchers want to test whether the same supply-versus-demand dynamic appears in other fast-growing clean-energy supply chains, such as wind turbines and solar panels.
Dr Zhou said battery decarbonisation policy and industry practice should move beyond regulating production emissions alone.
Co-author Professor Prakash Singh, from the University of Melbourne Faculty of Business and Economics, said policy could also encourage longer battery lifetimes, appropriate battery sizing, higher utilisation and second-life applications.
“The broader question should be not only ‘How low is the carbon footprint of each battery?’, but also ‘How much battery capacity do we actually need to provide the service?’” Professor Singh said.
