Wood Mackenzie has released a comprehensive report titled “Shining a light on the ‘coal versus LNG emissions’ debate”, which examines the lifecycle emissions of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) compared to coal in power generation.
The findings reveal that US LNG emits significantly less greenhouse gases than coal, with lifecycle emissions typically around 48 per cent of the coal equivalent when exported to northwest Europe.
This disparity is attributed not only to lower combustion emissions from natural gas but also to the high methane losses associated with underground mined bituminous coal from Appalachia, a key source of imported thermal coal in the region.
The report also highlights regional variations, noting that US LNG exported to China produces lifecycle emissions approximately 63 per cent of those from coal.
This difference stems from lower methane losses in surface-mined Indonesian coal compared to Appalachian coal.
However, even the lowest-emitting Indonesian coal still exceeds the emissions of US LNG by 23 per cent, primarily due to coal’s substantial combustion-related emissions.
Daniel Toleman, Research Director of Global LNG at Wood Mackenzie, addressed prior studies suggesting that LNG emissions may surpass those of coal due to methane losses along the value chain.
He emphasised that such claims undermine LNG’s role as a transitional fuel in global decarbonisation efforts.
Toleman clarified several critical points about US LNG production and transport:
- Only 10 per cent of US LNG feedgas originates from the high methane-intensity Permian Basin, while over two-thirds come from lower-emission basins like Haynesville and the Northeast.
- A significant portion of gas from these regions is certified with methane intensities below 0.2 per cent, meaning current estimates likely overstate US LNG emissions.
- US liquefaction projects employ modern turbine technologies, reducing emissions intensities by more than 20 per cent compared to the global average.
- Most US LNG is transported on high-efficiency vessels, further minimising its environmental impact.
Toleman stressed the importance of establishing a “common truth” about LNG and coal emissions based on empirical data and facts.
He argued that efforts to discredit LNG’s environmental benefits may hinder progress in decarbonising its value chain.
The report underscores Wood Mackenzie’s rigorous methodology, which incorporates credible third-party data and aligns with established standards for assessing lifecycle emissions.
Using a 20-year global warming potential for methane — 84 times that of CO2 — the analysis provides conservative yet reliable comparisons between fuels in key markets like northwest Europe and China.
