Alternative fuels are becoming central to the global shift toward clean energy, as governments, companies, and end users look for lower-carbon substitutes for petroleum fuels.
Global renewable refinery production capacity is forecast to climb from 11,716.0 million gallons per year (mmgy) in 2025 to 35,358.9 mmgy by 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
The findings come from GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence report, “Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition,” which defines alternative fuels as transport fuels that do not originate from crude oil.
The report focuses on biofuels, including renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels, all of which can reduce lifecycle emissions across road, aviation, and marine transport.
Alternative fuels are emerging as a practical bridge for a transport sector that cannot electrify everywhere at once.
The projected tripling of renewable refinery capacity over five years reflects growing prominence in the energy transition.
Transportation remains especially important for oil and gas companies, accounting for 46 per cent of global petroleum product demand in 2025.
That share rises to 55 per cent when international bunkers are included.
Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, explained why that matters.
“As road vehicles, aircraft, and vessels cannot all transition away from liquid and gaseous fuels at the same pace, alternative fuels provide a practical route to lower emissions while maintaining fuel reliability, range, and operational flexibility,” Puranik.
Biofuels offer the most immediate opportunity because they can be blended into existing fuel systems with limited infrastructure changes.
Renewable diesel and SAF, both produced from biomass in a renewable refinery, lead the near-term pathways where drop-in compatibility matters.
Over the longer term, low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels are expected to support hard-to-electrify sectors such as marine shipping and aviation.
The growth in refinery capacity is expected to be driven by both active capacity additions and a growing pipeline of upcoming projects.
Among the fuels produced, renewable diesel is especially important because it can serve as a drop-in alternative for road freight, rail, and shipping.
Its compatibility with existing diesel engines and fuel logistics makes it attractive to fleet operators seeking to cut emissions without replacing their vehicles.
For oil and gas companies, the opportunity spans refinery conversions, fuel trading, hydrogen and ammonia supply, fuels enabled by carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), and low-carbon fuel infrastructure.
Existing downstream assets can be adapted to process waste oils, fats, greases, vegetable oils, and other biogenic feedstocks, while selected refineries can be converted into renewable diesel and SAF facilities.
For companies, the message is that producing fuel is only part of the equation.
Winning in this market will mean managing every step from feedstock to customer, a shift that favours operators with established trading arms and retail networks already in place.
Fleet operators, meanwhile, stand to gain a way to lower emissions using the engines and fuel logistics they already own.
Success will depend on more than building plants.
Puranik noted that alternative fuels require not only production assets but also resources for feedstock aggregation, certification, blending, logistics, offtake management, and customer relationships.
Companies with established trading arms and retail networks are positioned to build low-carbon fuel portfolios across SAF, renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and eventually e-fuels.
Puranik concluded that the race is changing shape.
“Competitive advantage is shifting from simple production capacity toward control of the full commercial chain,” Puranik.