New analysis of official state and federal data reveals that the New South Wales coal industry is leading the charge on decarbonisation, putting it well on track to hit legislated state targets.
According to figures highlighted by the NSW Minerals Council, net emissions from coal mining have already fallen by 35 per cent compared to 2005 levels.
With the federal Safeguard Mechanism in play, the sector’s footprint is projected to drop by 50 per cent by 2030, aligning directly with the NSW government’s legislated emissions targets.
NSW Minerals CEO Stephen Galilee noted that direct emissions from coal mining have dropped 30 per cent since 2005, outpacing every other sector in the state.
“Coal mining makes up just 13 per cent of the state’s emissions and the industry’s direct emissions have fallen by 30 per cent since 2005, which is faster than the NSW state average and any other sector,” Mr Galilee said.
“The NSW coal industry is taking action to reduce emissions, with more than four million tonnes of emissions directly abated in 2024.”
He pointed to a wave of industry initiatives driving these reductions, including new fugitive emissions abatement projects and trials aimed at cutting diesel use in heavy mining machinery.
Interestingly, while the overall outlook for the state’s progress toward its 2030 targets slipped slightly over the past year, largely due to deteriorating performance in other sectors, the coal industry’s emissions forecast was revised downward yet again.
Peak fugitive emissions forecasts for the sector dropped by nearly one million tonnes in the latest update.
Galilee highlighted that official projections have consistently overestimated the sector’s impact. In 2024 alone, actual coal mining emissions came in roughly 20 per cent, or three million tonnes, below government estimates.
“While ongoing improvements to the accuracy of the NSW government’s future emissions forecasts are welcome, questions regarding their accuracy still remain, given each year the coal industry’s actual emissions have been well below previous NSW government forecasts,” Galilee said.
