The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has announced it will postpone the adoption of its Net-Zero Framework (NZF) for another year, following growing concerns over its feasibility and implementation challenges.
The decision, made during the latest Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) session, gives member states additional time to refine the framework’s ambiguous and contentious elements.
Rystad Energy’s maritime decarbonisation specialists released new research ahead of the MEPC meeting, highlighting critical deficiencies in the IMO’s current draft.
The analysis indicated that several crucial mechanisms within the NZF require further development to ensure a fair and sustainable transition for the global shipping industry.
The report found that clean-fuel supply projections fall significantly short of expected demand. According to Rystad Energy, this gap is compounded by limited bunkering infrastructure and slow progress in developing green energy corridors.
These factors collectively cast doubt on the industry’s ability to meet the IMO’s current decarbonisation timeline.
The research warned that without stronger coordination between governments and private stakeholders, supply chain bottlenecks could undermine the framework’s credibility and delay progress towards low-carbon shipping operations.
A second major issue identified in the study is the imbalance within the proposed carbon-trading mechanism.
The current design relies heavily on Tier II remedial unit offsets, yet Rystad Energy’s analysis forecasts that demand for these units will exceed global supply through 2035.
This shortfall could push trading prices to the Tier II penalty ceiling, raising compliance costs for shipowners and operators.
The report further emphasised the need for careful adjustment to the framework’s reward mechanism.
It noted that if left unchanged, the structure risks becoming “a mere penalty-collection system,” failing to properly incentivise emissions reductions.
While Rystad Energy expects cost disparities between conventional and low-carbon fuels to narrow over time as technology matures, analysts argue that the IMO must ensure its reward structure encourages proactive adoption rather than reactive compliance.
“Decarbonising the maritime sector is a complex challenge that goes beyond shipping, closely tied to the global shift from fossil fuels to renewables,” said Junlin Yu, vice president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy.
“Our findings suggests progress will likely lag behind the IMO’s current expectations due to infrastructure limits, technology readiness, and energy system interconnections.
“While the industry is committed, practical constraints demand a realistic approach.
“The IMO should use the extra year to refine the NZF into a more practical and equitable framework.”
Despite the delay, analysts view the extension as a critical opportunity.
By addressing the issues outlined — clean-fuel availability, carbon-trading equity, and reward structure design — the IMO can strengthen the NZF, aligning it more closely with market realities and technological development trajectories.
The industry now awaits revised proposals expected in 2026, with hopes that the additional deliberation period will yield a clearer pathway toward decarbonisation that balances environmental ambition with economic viability.
