Global methane emissions from the onshore upstream oil and gas sector rose in late 2024 and early 2025, marking the first significant increase since the downward trend began in 2020, according to a new analysis by Rystad Energy.
Satellite data reveals sharp regional contrasts, with China’s emissions surging nearly one-third year-on-year, the United States recording a smaller 4 per cent increase, and Russia experiencing a 5 per cent decline due to lower production levels amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Rystad Energy reported that roughly 45,000 methane plumes — concentrated clouds of CH₄ gas — were detected in the first quarter of 2025, up from 31,000 in the same period last year.
These plumes translated to a combined carbon footprint of around 45 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e), representing a 40 per cent year-on-year rise.
Large methane plumes were observed across the Middle East, North Africa, China, Russia, and North America.
Despite higher absolute emissions, many of these high-output regions maintain relatively low methane intensity due to efficient operations.
Conversely, aging infrastructure in parts of Central Asia and North Africa contributed to a disproportionately high methane footprint relative to production volumes.
“Upstream oil and gas production is a major source of emissions, responsible for about 20 per cent of all human-caused methane leaks into the atmosphere,” said Patrick King, Vice President, Emissions Research, Rystad Energy.
“The biggest challenge is detection but, once found, most can be fixed, unlike carbon dioxide [CO₂], which largely comes from combustion and is harder to avoid.
King noted that methane reduction has emerged as a top priority for energy producers, explaining that its shorter lifespan in the atmosphere but significantly stronger warming impact than CO₂ means companies must act swiftly rather than rely solely on long-term plans.
He added that many major leak incidents often go unreported by exploration and production firms, a gap that urgently needs to be corrected.
The data also shows that methane emissions in most countries follow seasonal fluctuations, influenced by colder conditions, operational cycles, and atmospheric factors affecting satellite detection.
China exemplified this pattern in 2025, posting the world’s highest emissions from oil and gas production, with peaks typically in early winter.
Nonetheless, improved operational practices have led to a 30 per cent decline in satellite-detected emissions since 2018, even as gas production climbed by 50 per cent, supported by ongoing reduction programs by CNPC and Sinopec.
In the United States, early 2025 methane plumes were linked to activity over the Bakken shale despite a relatively mild winter.
Federal methane abatement efforts have stalled, following the February 2025 reversal of the Waste Emission Charge enacted under the prior administration.
With new movements aimed at removing the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, the country’s policy direction under President Trump has introduced new uncertainty.
Rystad Energy anticipates limited effects from flaring restrictions but expects the shale sector to continue reducing emissions intensity, building on efficiencies gained during industry consolidation in 2023 and 2024.
Elsewhere, certain nations have sustained improvements despite global increases.
Iraq had achieved steady methane reductions since 2019 as oil output declined and gas production expanded, yet emissions surged nearly 50 per cent in early 2025, largely due to production ramp-up and flaring in the Zagros Foldbelt Basin.
South and Central Asia, India, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan recorded emissions declines between 2022 and 2024, though early 2025 figures rebounded to near-2023 levels.
Uzbekistan’s rise was tied to higher output at the Tolibtepa gas field, while India is advancing a National Inventory Management System for comprehensive methane tracking.
