Rystad Energy has released an immediate reaction to President Donald Trump’s first day in office, focusing on the numerous executive actions and announcements impacting the energy sector.
Artem Abramov, Head of New Energies Research at Rystad Energy, provided insights into the swift changes implemented by the new administration.
President Trump, upon taking office on January 20, 2025, issued a series of orders with direct implications for the energy industry.
In line with his campaign promises, Trump declared a national energy emergency and outlined a policy direction aimed at boosting domestic oil and gas supply.
One of his first actions was to revoke former President Joe Biden’s pause on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) permitting.
Abramov noted that the impact on low-carbon energy sectors was not surprising.
The analysis identified four major immediate implications for renewable energy and cleantech sectors.
One of the most anticipated moves was the US exit from the Paris Agreement.
Trump swiftly issued an order, ‘Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements’, initiating the country’s withdrawal process from the climate accord.
Rystad Energy expects this process to move faster than during Trump’s first term and anticipates more significant international implications.
This could potentially strengthen support for anti-climate policies in Europe and other regions.
Another significant action was the immediate suspension of offshore wind energy permitting.
This move effectively halts any new offshore wind developments in the US for the foreseeable future.
While the approximately 2.4 gigawatts (GW) of advanced-stage offshore wind projects already under construction are unlikely to be affected, there is moderate risk for 10.5 GW of projects with secured permits but without final investment decisions.
The remaining 25 GW of early-stage projects are not expected to progress under the current administration.
The declaration of a “National Energy Emergency” has raised concerns among experts about potential carte blanche for ramping up fossil fuel production.
This is particularly worrying for Alaska, which was the focus of a separate executive order designed to ‘unleash’ the state’s natural resources.
Despite oil and gas production reaching record levels during Joe Biden’s presidency, Rystad’s Abramov suggests that Trump may act “faster and harder” than during his first term, including on drilling and extraction in sensitive areas like the Arctic.
The “Unleashing American Energy” executive order also targets clean transportation initiatives.
It reverses the Biden Administration’s goal of 50 per cent zero-emission vehicles for new passenger cars and light trucks by 2030.
Additionally, it introduces an immediate halt to federal funding for vehicle charging stations pending a review process.
Rystad Energy anticipates that the next development to monitor will be an attempt to repeal clean vehicle consumer tax credits introduced in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), although this process may take longer and require congressional approval.
Trump’s order also directs agencies to consider eliminating the social cost of carbon calculations from all federal permitting and regulatory decisions, describing the calculation as marked by “logical deficiencies” and “a poor basis in empirical science”.
Despite these policy shifts, Rystad Energy notes that the EV market share in the US reached a record high for new sales in December 2024, and EV sales are still expected to trend upwards in 2025.
However, the medium-term adoption outlook may be influenced by policy changes in the coming months.
As the energy landscape continues to evolve under the new administration, industry stakeholders and environmental advocates alike will be closely monitoring the implementation and impact of these sweeping policy changes.
