The rapid pace of decommissioning of early-generation solar and wind infrastructure will force a major shift in global clean energy deployment, driving equipment sales to record highs even as overall demand growth stabilises.
According to a new report by research firm Wood Mackenzie, more than 2.5 terawatts (TW) of operating wind and solar projects will reach the end of their operational lifespan by the 2040s out of the 3.5 TW currently deployed worldwide.
Asset owners face critical decisions to abandon sites, extend operational lifespans, or execute full repowering programmes.
Repowering, replacing older equipment with modern, high-efficiency technology, presents a distinct economic advantage. Developers can bypass grid connection queues and planning bottlenecks by utilising established sites with existing approvals and community support.
Furthermore, prime historical locations often boast superior resources. In Germany, wind speeds at sites decommissioned this decade average 4 per cent higher than new greenfield locations, yielding roughly 7 per cent higher capacity factors and lower generation costs.
However, Wood Mackenzie warns that government policy blind spots threaten net-zero goals. Many national renewable targets fail to account for decommissioning rates. For instance, the European Union requires roughly 37 gigawatts (GW) of annual wind additions to hit its 2030 targets, but forecasted retirements of 17 GW mean an extra 2 GW per year is needed just to offset losses.
“We are entering a new chapter in the energy transition, one defined not just by power demand growth, but by renewal,” said Søren Lassen, Head of Wind at Wood Mackenzie.
“Without installations replacing decommissioned projects, global wind and solar deployment would continue to decline year-on-year. By acknowledging this impact, it will fundamentally change the long-term trajectory and narrative of renewables and hopefully also company and government strategies.”
By the 2040s, replacement projects will account for 44 per cent of global wind installations and 23 per cent of solar additions, reaching over 70 per cent in mature European markets. Consequently, equipment sales in 2050 are projected to be 60 per cent higher than in 2026.
“The full force of this shift arrives in the 2040s, but the decisions that will determine who is ready for it are being made right now,” said Lassen.
