The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has published its latest electricity supply outlook for Western Australia’s main power system, forecasting an improved position compared with last year’s report.
The Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), developed annually, forecasts electricity capacity and demand over a 10-year horizon for Western Australia’s South West Interconnected System (SWIS).
The report supports government and industry planning and investment decisions and helps set the targets for capacity required to maintain power system security and reliability.
AEMO Executive General Manager Western Australia, Kirsten Rose, said the 2026 WEM ESOO shows sufficient capacity to meet demand through to 2028-29.
“The near-term outlook for the SWIS has improved, and reliability targets are expected to be met over the next three years,” said Rose.
“This improved outlook has been largely driven by strong investment alongside government-led initiatives,” she said.
More than 1,000 MW of new generation and storage capacity is expected to be progressively delivered by 2030 31, with further projects still in the development pipeline.
The uptake of distributed energy resources, including household batteries, has also contributed to the positive near-term outlook, driven in part by support from the Commonwealth and Western Australian governments.
“Consumer investment in rooftop solar and household batteries is playing an increasingly critical role in the power system,” said Rose.
“When coordinated to act as virtual power plants, household batteries provide material benefits by discharging into the grid over the evening peak, reducing peak demand by 200 MW in 2028 29.”
Over the 10-year outlook period, demand across the SWIS is expected to rise by more than 50 per cent, as the population continues to expand and homes and businesses increasingly electrify.
“While strong investment has been observed to date, more investment will be needed over the second half of the outlook period to meet demand growth and replace ageing thermal generation, which is expected to progressively exit the SWIS over the remainder of the outlook,” said Rose.
“We continued to see high investment interest, with more than 2,000 MW of potential projects submitting expressions of interest in the 2026 Reserve Capacity Cycle, which procures capacity for 2028 29.
“The project pipeline is clearly strong, but it remains critical that new generation and storage capacity is delivered on time, alongside planned transmission network augmentations,” she said.
The WEM ESOO is published annually by AEMO and is used by government, industry and investors to inform decisions about future generation, storage and network investment needed to keep Western Australia’s main power system secure and reliable.