Subscribe to Newsletter

logo

  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Resources
  • Trending
  • Business Insight
  • Events
  • Magazine
  • Advertise
  • Contact
Home
  • Home
  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Resources
  • Trending
  • Business Insight
  • Events
  • Magazine
  • Advertise
  • Contact

Lithium-ion battery recycling not expected to take off before 2030

15 Dec, 2021



Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery recycling is not expected to take off before 2030, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie.

Last year, EVs accounted for just under 7% of passenger car sales globally and Wood Mackenzie’s base case scenario expects penetration to reach 23 per cent by 2030.

The transition to the massive scale-up of EVs naturally points to an equally high demand for Li-ion batteries.

By 2040, 89 per cent of Li-ion battery demand will come from the EV sector.

Wood Mackenzie research analyst Max Reid said: “Underneath the surface of this electric future lies a relatively young supply chain struggling to keep up.

“The Li-ion battery demand market can fluctuate over months and expanding upstream and midstream to produce battery materials involves lead times of several years.

“As it is a new industry, there is limited historic capacity to flip the switch on, and yet many see this as a ripe environment for recycling to make a tangible impact.”

Currently, battery recycling focusses on the portable electronics market – recyclers benefit from technologies with an easily accessible battery, compared with EV batteries.

EV-packs are complex to disassemble into individual cells, so recyclers are left to discharge packs in conductive baths before mechanically shredding them into a mix of constituent materials.

Furthermore, currently new batteries cost less to produce, hence disincentivising battery recycling as the value of recovered material is reduced.

Also, battery manufacturers are leaning towards using cheaper materials leaving recyclers to increase the efficiency of their processes to maintain profit.

Moreover, the introduction of new materials such as solid-state electrolytes will require recyclers to retrofit their processes.

Reid said: “This decade will see the supply chain further establish itself to be able to supply vast quantities of battery-grade chemicals and cathodes to cell manufacturers, whilst recyclers will struggle with the large mass and complexity of EV-packs.”

A new cathode facility will produce 50 kilo-tonnes per annum (ktpa) of NMC (nickel, manganese and cobalt) material, while a recycling facility will typically process 5-10 ktpa of e-waste – the former equating to roughly 400,000 battery EVs annually and the latter taking in just roughly 30,000 EV-packs yearly.

Reid also pointed to the lack of recyclable feedstock as a major barrier.

Even though EV manufacturing is set to boom before 2030, the number of end-of-life (EoL) batteries available for recycling will remain limited for two main reasons: EV penetration at the beginning of the decade is much lower than at the end, and EVs have an increasingly long lifespan reaching up to 15 years.

The lack of available secondary supply from recycling is evident, and yet the recycling sector is already scaling up quite aggressively.

According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, the total capacity of planned recycling facilities will still overshoot feedstock in 2030 when EoL EV numbers begin to ramp up.

 

 

The resulting supply imbalance will leave independent recyclers, especially in North America and Europe, in a scramble for used EV batteries.

China, which has a mature and large re-use and refurbishment sector for portable electronics, benefits from proximity to the midstream.

Chinese recyclers benefit from greater integration with nearby cathode production plants, so Chinese recyclers can regularly bid much higher prices for used batteries than their Western counterparts.

Until North America and Europe have developed more integrated raw material supply chains, China will remain the most appealing location for battery recycling.

Reid said: “Bullish expectations for Li-ion recycling may well lead to a rush of new entrants to the space.

“However, limitations on feedstocks mean that only the large and integrated will likely survive and reap the rewards in later years.”

Related Articles

REGEN 2025

REGEN 2025

Australasian Waste & Recycling Expo

Comments

Leave a comment Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Breaking

  • Energy
  • Construction
  • Resources
09 Jun

AEMO’s distribution focus enables community participation

06 Jun

Report shows 20 million gained energy access in 2024

06 Jun

Kulak Solar Village is Iraq’s first off-grid community

06 Jun

5B receives $46 million to expand manufacturing

06 Jun

EnergyAustralia admits offsets do not undo harm

12 Jun

Cumberland celebrates planting its 1,000th tree

10 Jun

Stantec helps New Epping achieve sustainability excellence

09 Jun

RMIT engineers transform low-grade clay into cement

09 Jun

Perth’s urban tree canopy saw slight increase in 2024

30 May

Green homes now mainstream Australian property priority

09 Jun

Australia’s hydrogen certification framework faces scrutiny

09 Jun

Biofuel demand outpaces supply, risking shortages

28 May

Major contract awarded for methanol facility in UAE

27 May

Archaeologist accuses WA government of North West Shelf cover-up

13 May

Queensland resources sector drives energy transition

  • BATTERY ASSET MANAGEMENT SUMMIT

Online Magazine

    Current Cover
  • Login
  • Subscribe

Subscribe

Subscribe to Newsletter

Our Titles

  • Share on Newsletter
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy
© Sage Media Group 2025 All Rights Reserved.
×
Authorization
  • Registration
 This feature has been disabled
 This feature has been disabled until further notice, however you may still register
×
Registration
  • Autorization
Register
* All fields required