A University of New South Wales (UNSW) academic is leading ground-breaking work to transform the environmental footprint of global shipping by harnessing the power of ocean currents.
Each day, more than 50,000 cargo ships traverse the world’s oceans, transporting about 90 per cent of all traded goods worldwide.
Yet this vast industry is also responsible for 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions — if it were a nation, shipping would stand as the sixth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Seeking a solution, Associate Professor Shane Keating, an expert in oceanography and applied mathematics at UNSW Sydney, has developed an algorithm powered by state-of-the-art ocean models and artificial intelligence (AI) to chart more efficient sea routes for ships.
“With better ocean forecasts, ships can use the power of currents as they travel, reducing fuel use and cutting emissions,” said Associate Professor Keating.
His innovation will soon reach the shipping industry through UNSW Sydney spinout company, CounterCurrent, a venture built on 15 years of research into forecasting, satellite remote sensing, and data science.
“The algorithm is like a Google Maps for the sea, giving the most efficient route in real time based on the behaviour of ocean eddies,” said Keating.
Keating’s core expertise lies in unravelling the mysteries of ocean eddies — swirling, circular currents akin to atmospheric storms.
While eddies are present in every ocean basin and account for 90 per cent of the ocean’s kinetic energy, they have historically been poorly represented in traditional forecasts.
By incorporating eddies more effectively, Keating argues, commercial ships can exploit these dynamic flows to find more efficient routes.
Traditionally, ships follow the great circle route — the shortest distance between two points on the globe. However, with constantly shifting ocean currents, sticking strictly to these paths forces ships to burn additional fuel to counteract the currents.
As Keating notes, by aligning with ocean currents — even if it means covering a slightly longer surface distance — ships travel more efficiently, saving both fuel and emissions.
“You can do this in real time if you know where those ocean currents are,” said Keating.
The capacity to track these elusive eddies comes from revolutionary advances in satellite technology.
After completing his PhD in astrophysics, Keating began using satellites to observe the ocean’s complexity from space: “In the past few decades, satellite technology has completely revolutionised the way we look at the ocean,” he said.
“Before the satellite era, our picture of the ocean was of a giant bathtub of seawater with just a few large ocean currents… Thanks to satellites, we now know that the ocean is highly turbulent and chaotic, like our atmosphere, and is filled with thousands of ocean eddies that can range in diameter from ten to 300 kilometres and depths of up to 2000 metres.”
The launch of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite in December 2022 marked a leap forward, providing ocean current maps at ten times the resolution of previous technologies.
As a member of the international science team for SWOT and leader of the Australian SWOT working group, Keating is at the forefront of this research wave.
Testing and validating satellite data requires surface measurements.
In October 2023, Keating, alongside a team of UNSW oceanographers, collected crucial ocean data aboard the CSIRO research vessel RV Investigator.
Data from commercial vessels are also invaluable in charting real-world current behaviour — especially as the climate shifts.
This collaborative approach was seen in April 2024 when Keating joined a 140-metre cargo vessel on a voyage from Newcastle to Auckland as part of the Ships of Opportunity Program (SOOP).
This global initiative enlists commercial ships to collect marine data in support of weather and ocean forecasting.
“It was amazing. You are travelling across the ocean at the speed of a golf cart, so you can really see the impact of ocean currents on the vessel,” said Keating.
The experience gave Keating new insight into an industry often hidden from public view, stating: “Shipping is the lifeblood of the global economy, worth a staggering US$20 trillion per year, but we almost never hear about it unless something goes wrong.
“All of that shipping has a huge carbon footprint – over a billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year is emitted by the shipping industry.”
The International Maritime Organisation has pledged for global shipping to reach zero emissions by 2050.
Yet replacing existing fleets with ships capable of running on green fuels is a lengthy, costly process; alternative fuels are up to 10 times pricier than traditional options.
Keating’s ship routing technology offers an immediate solution: modest route adjustments to harness natural currents, demonstrated to cut fuel consumption by up to 20 per cent after trials on more than a hundred vessels.
Several shipping companies and shipbuilders are now moving to commercialise this “win-win” technology.
Keating said: “They can save money and meet their emissions reductions targets right now, without any modification to the vessel or change in the vessel transit time.
“My hope is that, within the next 5 years, this research will change the way that ships cross the ocean so that shipping companies can meet their emissions targets.”
Supported by multiple grants, including the CSIRO Marine National Facility, Ships of Opportunity Program, and Australian Research Council, Keating’s work could soon chart a new course — steering the shipping sector toward a more sustainable future.