Australia’s energy security has seen some improvement, with the latest federal data revealing that risks to adequate gas supply have been pushed back by a year.
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities, risks to gas adequacy that were previously expected sooner are now not forecast to emerge until 2030 under most weather conditions.
The improved outlook is being attributed to a balanced approach that combines sensible gas policy with a record surge in renewable energy and battery storage.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, said the report proves that the government’s energy plan is delivering practical results.
“This report shows practical action is making a difference. More renewables, more batteries and sensible gas policy are improving energy security and putting Australia in a stronger position,” Bowen said.
“For the first time in 2025, more than half the grid was powered by cheaper, cleaner energy generated by renewables, backed by battery storage and gas peaking when needed which puts downward pressure on energy bills.”
The report highlights a shifting landscape for fossil fuels. Gas consumption is forecast to decline steadily through to 2045 as Australian households and businesses transition to electrification.
This shift is freeing up gas for critical sectors where it is hardest to replace, such as heavy industry and as a strategic firming tool to stabilise the electricity grid during peak demand.
To ensure long-term reliability, the federal government has already secured 644 petajoules of gas for the domestic market.
Further protections are on the way, with a new domestic gas reservation model currently in development.
Designed in consultation with manufacturers and international trade partners, the scheme is expected to be fully operational by early 2027.
While the immediate pressure has eased, AEMO warns that more work remains. New supply investments will still be required by the end of the decade to navigate the final stages of the nation’s coal-fired power retirement.
