Energy policy is taking centre stage as Australia prepares for its upcoming federal election, to be held by May 17, 2025.

The vote is shaping up as a referendum on the country’s energy future, with voters facing a stark choice between renewable targets and nuclear power.

The current Labor government is championing an ambitious 82 per cent renewable energy target, while the opposition Liberal-National Party (LNP) proposes building 13 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2051 to replace coal generation.

However, research by Rystad Energy suggests both plans face significant challenges.

Even under optimistic scenarios, Labor’s renewable target may fall short by 17 per cent, reaching only 65 per cent.

The LNP’s focus on nuclear would likely result in an even lower renewable share.

Complicating matters are immediate energy security concerns.

Grid instability, power shortfalls, and a looming gas shortage threaten to derail Australia’s energy transition in the near term.

By 2028, New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria are projected to face capacity shortfalls as coal and gas plants retire.

To bridge this gap, gas generators and peaking facilities will be crucial, alongside batteries and pumped hydro projects.

Kaushal Ramesh, Vice President of Gas & LNG Research at Rystad Energy, warns that eastern states are already facing winter gas supply challenges.

“Even in our most optimistic scenario, LNG imports to Australia are looking like an inevitability,” he states.

If Labor retains power, Rystad Energy forecasts a record 7.2 GW annual increase in renewable and gas capacity.

An LNP victory would likely reduce solar and wind deployment, though the extent remains uncertain.

Gero Farruggio, Head of Australia at Rystad Energy, highlights the urgency of the situation, stating: “The continent’s dispatchable generation is nearing critical levels and decisions made today will be pivotal in avoiding blackouts.”

Positive momentum for renewables has been observed under Labor’s term, with 2025 expected to see record capacity additions, including Australia’s fourth pumped hydro project and its largest gas plant in 15 years.

As the election approaches, Australians face crucial decisions that will shape the country’s energy landscape for decades to come.

With rising energy prices and cost of living pressures, the outcome will have far-reaching implications for both the economy and everyday consumers.